The Crumbling Time

#4: 7 October

CT 4

   Here’s where it is appropriate to examine the state of affairs in Ukraine (UKR). Now 20+ months in, many things are clear. NATO, driven (used) by the US to “supply Ukraine” so that only UKR blood is spilled on the European side of the conflict line, is tapped out. The US military machine has also donated just about everything it cares to; and just recently announced to Congress that it needs appropriations to backfill what has now been destroyed (so easily) in UKR. The fervor for the war which was so hot at the beginning is slowly eroding due to the lack of progress in retaking territory from the “invaders”. Following WWII little attempt was made to rebuild the manufacturing of weapons and ammunition in Europe, in large part because the funding for the rebuilding came from America and Empire didn’t want European competition for profits. And in the decades of technological development since, along with the horror of seeing war on the nightly news during the Vietnam defeat, American youth returning from war in caskets became the driving force in developing high-tech, remote killing methods, thus saving American lives. But these new weapons are VERY expensive per unit, and so few units can be made given current economic realities. Russia and China have no such constraints; they are happy to turn out massive amounts of low-tech weaponry and ammo, nor do they care as much about profit centers. As a consequence, Russia continued to prepare for war of the traditional, grinding, overland variety. Thus it was prepared for what has gone on in UKR since February 2022, while Europe was not. Europe cannot reverse decades of neglect in capacity in any time frame that matters. It lacks the energy, resources, and motivation to rearm for a land war over the entire continent; nor should it. Let’s add some perspective: the Russian 2024 federal budget is USD200 billion. The US itself has given UKR $130 billion in 19 months, and has almost nothing to show for it. This is what I mean about expensive, limited in quantity, “feel good” arms and tactics not being effective. The fight in UKR is all but over, the Fat Lady, as we sometimes say, is singing already. The only question now should be what does a multipolar world look like, once Empire is discernibly decrepit and unable to stand by its threats and promises?

   I admit it has been fascinating to watch the Empire project its own version of war onto Russia. Where’s the shock-and-awe, the lightning attack/advance, the torture projects? The collective ego is on display: we are invincible, in equipment and training; we are in economic control, you (enemy) can’t prosper if we take our business elsewhere; our funding for war knows no limits; we can stand on your (figurative) porch and you can’t make us go away…. All of this despite the erosion of men/material/strategy after decades of self-centered neglect. Russia attacks civilians (bad), UKR uses hospitals and schools to house soldiers (good); at east according to the gospel and propaganda of Imperial War. “We have the right to sail our warships right up to a few miles off your coast”…and you have to accept that. But missiles in Cuba? Oh hell no. Some say the US has been involved in (code for executing) 73 coups since WWII; and in every instance, the democratic process in the targeted country was destroyed to enable a takeover of the government by Western-friendly stooges.

   That being the case, where does diplomacy fit in? America of yesteryear had actual diplomats; people who would discuss everything with anyone, seeking common ground and co-existence. Treaties were negotiated with archenemy USSR to reduce nuclear capacity and delivery methods; the result of discussions that are unthinkable in today’s climate of fear and the “rules-based international order”. Why is it “rules-based”, not “moral action” or “per international law”? It’s because American Empire is full of itself, an egomaniac on the world stage, the global policeman, and through sanctions, proxy wars, and military bases in most countries around the globe, Empire insists others do what WE want. Diplomacy, by definition, includes compromise and we don’t abide compromise in our domestic politics so why should we allow other countries the niceties of cooperation?

   So what is it that solves the Russian/UKR situation? To begin, let’s have those diplomatic conversations about security in all of Europe. NATO was created to prevent a Russian ground war that would do to Europe what Nazi Germany had just attempted, if you believe the Americans excuse. However it should be noted that one key aspect of NATO over the decades since has been to keep the Americans concerned about Europe.  It’s beginning to look a lot like the gift of American military power is no longer able to keep a strong nation contained; and that the Americans now hold Europe in extreme contempt – cough, Nordstream, cough. This is such a distortion of history; neglecting that Russians paid the highest price in civilian lives, by far, than any other European or Asian nation. It also turns anyone who voices the fact that Russia defeated Hitler, not America, into a pariah. The attack on Russia early in that tragic war began through Ukraine. It would be sensible to think that Russia wants Ukraine to be militarily neutral, a buffer if you will, against any European invasion. Given Empire’s stated goal of ‘bleeding Russia dry using Ukraine’, don’t try to tell me that Europe would never invade like that. The Western approach is to bring the threat of death right onto the porch; others feel peace is found in disarming, in treaties, in security guarantees based on right understanding. Of course, by definition, Empire won’t go down that road. Thus we determine that Empire is the problem and deserves to collapse.

   Western focus and development, as with any Empire, shifted after winning WWII to putting out fires in its colonies. IOW it grew to fight lots of small wars, against mediocre opponents, at the cost of not being able to fight even one big one against a strong enemy. This is what makes the rhetoric about China/Taiwan being next on the agenda once Russia is beaten down so frightening. Again we see the Imperial ego, “we are invincible”, voicing strategies that the military body can’t cash. Especially troublesome are the op-eds justifying the use of ‘tactical nukes’. Remember, nuclear weapons have only been used twice. Rhetoric about the threat they will be used in Europe by the Russians is especially insidious; it’s one thing to use one, even a small one, halfway around the world from your home. It’s quite another to expect that Russians are so barbarous as to inflict the nuclear aftermath on their own population, especially when the global power structure is shifting in their favor. The war in UKR is also going in their favor; they are not the desperate ones, nor will they go so far as to become a pariah in the eyes of the world. Empire, on the other hand, is desperate and might well choose a suicidal move as it overturns the global ‘chessboard’, a Jesus-and-the-moneychangers style move.

   NATO is done; it can’t restock UKR for the next “offensive”, nor can it defend any other nation in Europe within any time frame that matters. The EU is toast too, regardless of what happens in UKR; the dawning fight over monetary support for the most-corrupt-in-Europe UKR regime will shred the alliance within a few years. We are destined for a multi-polar world, not just militarily but economically also. Finally, the West will have to compete with economies based on cooperation, not domination. The days of American industrial output being the dominant force rebuilding the globe after WWII are over. The days of oil are coming to an end; not because we are running out of it, just because we are running out of readily available deposits. It won’t be long before we understand our reliance on oil that costs more energy to extract than we get in return can’t continue. That’s reality on a finite planet; and all the war you choose to make won’t change this reality. War after all is always about resources; but at some point in the future, war will no longer be adequate to meet our energy needs unless we find a radical new source for that energy. Sorry to burst your bubble, but it won’t be solar or wind.

   After all is said and done, what good is domination and exploitation? One only breeds enemies; enemies that eventually are large enough and powerful enough to bite back. Is being exploited your fervent wish for your, for our, descendants? I said back in 2011, during the Occupy Wall Street theme of “We are the 99%”, that our goal cannot be to replace the 1 % with new faces. Rather, our goal must be to build a global society where 100% of the people are cared for, are given voice, and live free of fear. For this vision to manifest we must first remove, degrade, or incapacitate the existing “rules-based order”, replacing it with a “morals-based” one.

   [It was my intention all week to post this to Substack Saturday, 7 October. It was ready to go when I woke up this morning to the news about the outbreak of war in Israel/Palestine. Foremost: no war is just, no war accomplishes the stated goals. Diplomacy and finding common respect and common ground to build a relationship that cares for and supports human beings is always the only and best route. For a people who have been dominated and exploited for decades; that have paid an inordinate price for their time here on Earth, one must expect that sooner or later the suppression of their grief and rage will burst out with tragic consequences for all parties. Of course I decry this, of course I wish those with power had used their power far more sanely than what we have witnessed since the Dawn of Patriarchy. But chew on this for a moment: as discussed above, the UKR situation is nearing its end. The focus that has been placed on UKR is dissipating; and it needs somewhere to go, to prevent the fervor for military spending from disappearing too. It must seem like a blessing to the colonizers, both in Europe and America, that we now have an outbreak that will provide an alternate narrative to the crumbling one in Europe. Recent events in Syria, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Mali and now Palestine will be our motivation for the next war. Please wake up to the myriad ways we are manipulated and controlled. There are alternatives; it doesn’t have to be this way.]

   Last bit for this essay: the end of democracy in America. Y’all may not have noticed, clearly most haven’t, but in the last several decades, the two-party system has morphed into one; we now have a war party. Both major parties vote for war, need war, in order to get the support needed to win elections. Let’s be clear: this is because the media outlets most people follow are owned by a handful of players that are also neck-deep in the profits of war. They have no incentive, zero, to see peace on a global scale. A politician who even suggests negotiation to find a peaceful planet can’t be tolerated and is destroyed on contact with the political machine. And yes, in fact, our democracy is broken in other ways too. It may boost one’s ego to think we have free and fair elections, but I’ve spoken with official, international election monitors and they cringe when asked to opine on the state of voting inside Empire. Those who answer, say this democracy is in the lower half, not leading the pack. I’ll let this sink in and leave you to ponder the broader path we are taking. It is a path that leads to ruin. I can’t predict the actual moment or type of destruction; it could be nuclear winter, climate collapse, social collapse, famine, or one of many other ways collapse becomes our downfall. But make no mistake: authorities know we know they lie; we know they know we know they lie. Still, the lying does not stop. A common sense approach, which includes such historical knowledge as Canada turning away Jews during WWII and welcoming Nazis after war (Empire also!); which includes the 25+ million casualties, a majority of them civilian, suffered by Russia at the hands of Nazis from both Germany and Ukraine; and perhaps most importantly, the ever-increasingly shrill protestations of Empire when other sovereign nations refuse to follow our orders, a common sense approach would be based on communication, cooperation, and global caregiving by those who have the most to share.

   What more do you need, in terms of information, sense making abilities, integrity or motivation before you ramp up your preparations? I am not pointing to prepping in the sense of storing mass quantities of resources. I am pointing to the skills that will make you a valuable addition to your tribe: gratitude, generosity, sense, communication skills, integrity. And most of all: love. Love for Self, and love for others. The unconditional kind, as that’s the only kind that gets us through the challenges and out the other side whole. It may not feel obvious, it may not feel close. But if that’s how you feel, what if I’m right?